An in-depth analysis of the gold market: Who controls the price behind the violent fluctuations?

In early European trading on Monday (March 9), the gold market experienced another dramatic change! 😱 Gold prices fell, falling more than 2% at one point, breaking through the $5,100 mark and hitting a low of $5,014.51 per ounce. Is this the result of a decline in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical reasons, or is it the result of the dual impact of macroeconomic data and oil price inflation? 🤔 This article will analyze these violent fluctuations in the gold market and reveal the long-term bullish logic behind the short-term decline! 💡

🔍News analysis: Non-farm payrolls data raises expectations, but stronger US dollar weighs on gold prices

Last Friday (March 6), the spot gold price showed a sharp V-shaped reversal! 🎭The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, far below market expectations of an increase of 59,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%! This unexpectedly weak data triggered market expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, driving gold prices up 1.77% on the day. Spot gold settled at $5,171.01 an ounce, while April futures rose 1.6% to $5,158.70 an ounce. 📈

But the market is always full of volatility! 🎪The dual pressures of a strong U.S. dollar and escalating conflicts in the Middle East ultimately caused gold prices to record their first weekly decline in five weeks, with a cumulative decline of approximately 2% for the whole week. This ups and downs situation makes people both excited and worried! 😅

📊 Technical analysis: The battle for key support levels begins!

Technically, this week is focused on several key factors: the impact of CPI and PCE data, geopolitical dynamics, and the interaction of gold, the US dollar, and crude oil. 👀

⚠️Interpretation of current situation: Thanks to the impact of last week’s non-agricultural data, gold has initially formed a good bullish structure, but the return of the US dollar to strength has weakened gold’s continued upward momentum. This resulted in a pullback from Monday’s initial rally back into an established trading range. 😤

🎯 Analysis of key areas:

Actual trading range: 5000-5200🎪

The daily Bollinger Bands are constricting, with prices fluctuating around the midline. A strong uptrend cannot be maintained without consecutive positive days!

Wider range: 4850-5350 (expand the target after breaking through the narrower range)

📉Short-term trend assessment: After early losses, the 4-hour chart shows temporary weakness, indicating a very weak start to the week❄️. Therefore, the 5,000-point support level is the focus of attention at the beginning of the week!

💡 Two possible paths:

1️⃣If it does not break 5000: Gold may fluctuate and rebound upward, with resistance at 5120 and 5200, then you can consider the strategy of buying on dips! 📈
2️⃣If the price falls below 5000: the narrow range shock will expand into a wide range shock, and the next target is the low of 4850. At this time, you can consider a selling strategy on highs! 📉

💼 Trading strategy suggestions
Overall, market weakness at the start of the week hinges on whether the key support level of 5,000 will be breached. Trades should be based on a breakout of this level.

🎯 Short-term day trading strategies:

Short-term key resistance level: 5140-5190

Short-term key support level: 5050-5000

💪 Trading advice: Focus on selling at high prices and buying at low prices, and respond flexibly to market changes!

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