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Brian XAUUSD – Gold is in the decision zone today
Gold is trading in a “balance under pressure” environment today as the U.S. dollar strengthens. With DXY rising to multi-month highs around 99.70 and eyeing the 100.00 psychological level, the XAUUSD rally is likely to be sold off unless price shows clear acceptance above the underlying structure.
Technical structure (volume + trend line)
Sales area (POC): 5335–5340
This is the distribution area that has a significant impact on the file. If prices rise into this area, expect an increase in supply and a sharp reaction.
POC/liquidity areas have been tested
The market has examined the core of liquidity and reacted, suggesting that the market has entered a rebalancing phase rather than a continuation of a clean trend.
Downtrend line (short-term boundary)
Prices remain under pressure below the trend line. Sustainable recovery requires breakthrough and sustainment (acceptance). A rapid rise without follow-through is still a corrective rally.
Main support: ~4960.617 and ~4905.504 (psychological support)
These are the primary levels of defense during the day. Losing this cluster increases the likelihood of rapid downward movement.
Deep Value Buy Area (VAL): 4779–4784
You would only enter this area if today’s support completely fails and the market accepts lower prices.
Day trading scenario
Scenario 1: Trendline Breakout → Shift to Supply
Condition: Price breaks out of the downtrend line and holds above nearby resistance with a clean close.
Expectation: The top shifts to supply, and 5335-5340 points are the main reaction/take-profit areas.
Scenario 2: Rejection below trendline → turn to support
Condition: Price tests trendline/resistance zone but fails to hold (clear rejection).
Expectation: Shifting to equilibrium, if buyers are not defensive, downward pressure will be 4960 → 4905.
Scenario 3: Decline → Shift to deeper value (risk scenario)
Conditions: Price fell below 4960-4905 and failed to recover on retest.
Expectation: Accelerating downside with next major value/absorption area at 4779-4784.
generalize
Today is about level execution, not expectations. A clean breakout and acceptance above the trendline requires a quality upward spin. Otherwise, a stronger dollar will make the rally vulnerable to selling, and the focus will shift to the 4960-4905 support levels.
Follow Brian’s channel for daily XAUUSD updates built around volume profile levels, liquidity areas, and clear daily scenarios.
