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Gold prices continued their upward trend on Monday.
Good morning everyone. Here’s the latest gold analysis.
Rising oil prices + disappointing non-farm payrolls = sharp worsening of stagflation fears.
This is the ideal environment for gold: a slowing economy requires lower interest rates (positive), and high inflation requires a hedge (positive).
1. The unexpected negative growth in U.S. non-farm employment data in February is a major positive factor; a sudden slowdown in the labor market will force the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts.
2. The situation in the Middle East: Iran “will never surrender unconditionally” and the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again, which is a continued positive factor.
3. Iran elects a new leader—the new leader’s foreign policy stance will directly affect the direction of the situation in the Middle East and is a key factor worthy of attention this week.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
Strong resistance: 5300-5350
Second resistance level: 5250
First resistance: 5200-5210
First support: 5140-5150
Main support area: 5100-5120
Strong support: 5050-5080
Short-term trend: slight increase, large fluctuations; non-agricultural data reflects the market trend.
Key price: 5200 is the dividing line between short-term rise and fall. If the price remains at this level, the target will be 5250-5300. If resistance is encountered, a pullback to 5140-5150 could confirm support.
Overall structure: Uptrend resumes; last Tuesday’s decline proved to be a “rapid market correction.”
Basic logic: A series of good news over the weekend – disappointing non-farm data, tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, central bank bond buying – these are the four major positive factors. Trading strategy: Buy on dips.
Entry area: 5140-5160
Stop loss: less than 5120
Target price:
First target: 5200-5210
Second target: 5250
Third target: 5300 (if strong penetration occurs)
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