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Brian XAUUSD – Oil prices high, gold under pressure | POC+trendline as decision point
XAUUSD (H1) remains in a rebalancing phase after a sharp correction. Volume patterns suggest that the market has tested value and is now at the most important convergence point on this chart: the POC + uptrend line. The next step is already set – either a clear shift to supply or a plunge into deeper liquidity.
From a macro perspective, oil and gold are now moving in opposite directions. If oil prices continue to rise, gold prices may remain under pressure in the near term as the metal reprices on inflation expectations and the policy outlook. This usually means that gold rallies can be sold into supply zones unless price shows clear acceptance above key levels.
Key Levels (Volume Model + Structure)
Buy POC + Trendline: 5,075.655 (Base/Major Support)
Acceptance Check: ~5,121.940 (confirm rotation strength after recovery)
Sell POC: 5,164.966 (coil resistance, common rejection zone)
Downside Liquidity Risk: 4,995.472 (Next lead magnet if structure fails)
Trading scenario
Scene 1: Hold the base → rotate upwards
Conditions: Price holds 5,075.655 and recovers to ~5,121.940.
Prediction: The transaction volume is 5,164.966. If the price accepts above 5,165, a bullish extension to the upward supply zone will become active.
Scenario 2: POC sales rejected → lateral flow
Conditions: Price touched 5,164.966 but failed to hold above it.
Expectation: Retracement to around 5,121 points and possibly another test of 5,075 points.
Scenario 3: Falling below the POC+trend line
Conditions: Decisive close below 5,075.655 and failure to recover on retest.
Forecast: Downside risks are increasing rapidly, and the next liquidity target is 4,995.472.
Brian’s Rules
Don’t trade in between. Traded at 5,075 (buy bottom) and 5,165 (sell top) and was confirmed. As oil prices rise, expect deeper rejections unless gold proves it can accept returns above value.
Follow Brian’s channel for clear XAUUSD levels, volume model scenarios, and market-ready execution plans.
