Gold market analysis: The battle between bulls and bears

Gold market analysis: The battle between bulls and bears – who will win? Tonight’s strategy: Buy low, sell high!

Hello everyone! 👋In today’s gold market, bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce battle at key prices. Gold prices resisted strongly under the support of safe-haven demand, but faced dual pressures from the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, making the market highly speculative.

🌍 Basic factor: weight on both sides of the scale
The market is currently dominated by two forces:

🛡️Safe-haven buying (bulls’ ace): The situation in the Middle East still poses an imminent risk to the market. Iran’s dire warnings to Israel have heightened risks associated with nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz, an important energy corridor, potentially being cut off at any time. This geopolitical uncertainty has provided a steady stream of safe-haven bids for gold. Moreover, central banks around the world, led by the People’s Bank of China, continue to increase their holdings of gold, which is laying a solid foundation for the long-term upward trend of gold prices. This is the strongest support for optimistic investors!

💰 Macroeconomic control (a weapon in the hands of pessimistic investors): However, the road ahead for optimistic investors is not smooth. News that Trump nominated Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, as chairman of the Federal Reserve has sparked concerns about expectations for a rate hike. Expectations for a rate cut were postponed, causing the dollar index to strengthen and U.S. Treasury yields to rise. This is akin to limiting gold to a “non-interest-bearing asset,” severely limiting its upside potential.

My personal opinion: Gold is currently like a warrior tied by a rope. Although the core is strong (long-term upward trend), its hands and feet are tied (short-term macroeconomic pressure), making it difficult to make a decisive breakthrough in the short term. The market is waiting for a clear breakout signal!

📊Technical Analysis: Uptrend, but short-term deadlock

This dilemma is most evident on technical charts.

🟢Daily Chart (Medium-Term Trend): The moving average system maintains a strong bullish arrangement, which is a very positive sign indicating the continuation of gold’s medium-term uptrend. Each pullback seems to build momentum for the next rally. In the medium to long term, optimism should not be given up!

🔴Four-hour chart (short-term expectations): Short-term expectations are not too optimistic. The 10-day EMA crosses above the 20-day EMA, forming a short-term bearish crossover. Currently, gold prices are below both of these moving averages, indicating that short-term sellers are in control, limiting the strength and sustainability of any rebound. Price action is characterized by rapid swings between up and down trends, making attempts to chase highs and lows risky and potentially disastrous.

My personal opinion: Today’s market is going through a typical high accumulation and liquidation stage. Despite the apparent strength of sellers, gold prices rebounded quickly after each dip, suggesting strong buying support below. This shows that it is difficult for sellers to completely occupy the market. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase the decline; buying at lower levels is the best strategy. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate tonight, waiting for new catalysts.

🎯 Evening Trading Strategy: Buy Low, Sell High, Trade Fast

Avoid overtrading before the trend becomes clear. In this volatile market, it is recommended to follow a “buy low, sell high” strategy and look for entry opportunities near key resistance and support levels.

【Strategy preparation】

💨 Short selling opportunities (sell when price rises):

Entry range: It is recommended to sell slightly in the 5190-5194 range.

Stop Loss: Place your stop loss order above 5222, which is strong resistance today. If this level is breached, close your position immediately.

Target: First target 5150; if below this level, a move towards 5100 is expected.

💰 Buying opportunities (buy when prices fall):

Entry range: A callback to the 5080-5082 range is a relatively ideal entry point for bulls.

Defense: Place a stop-loss order below key short-term support at 5045.

Target: The initial target for the rebound is 5100 points. If this level is exceeded, it may rise further to 5150 points.

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