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momentum
– Momentum on the daily time frame (D1) has now confirmed a bearish reversal. Therefore, we may see a downtrend or sideways movement at least for the next few days.
– Momentum on the H4 time frame is currently rising. Therefore, we may need to add another candle or two on the H4 frame until momentum reaches overbought territory and then reverses. During this period, the price may rise slightly or continue to trade sideways until the H4 momentum reaches the overbought zone.
Momentum on the first half time frame is now starting to reverse from overbought territory, suggesting that prices may be headed for a downside or sideways trend in the near term.
wave structure
– Wave structure on D1 frame:
With the recent strong decline confirming the reversal of the downward momentum of D1, in addition to the previously analyzed rebound from the 0.786 Fibonacci level, the top of the B wave is likely to have formed.
The current main scenario is that prices will continue to fall to complete Wave C.
The expected target of wave C is located near 4282, which is also the 4-wave area in the previous structure, so this area is considered a potential target for the current callback.
– Wave structure on H4 frame:
Price actually reached our previously designated target area of 5421 before falling strongly.
The current strategy is to wait for the H4 momentum to reach the overbought zone and then look for sell signals consistent with the downtrend.
– Wave structure on H1 frame:
Looking at the current bearish structure, the price may be in a five-wave pulse structure 1-2-3-4-5 (red).
But a bullish ABC correction structure is currently forming, and as H4 momentum continues to rise, this correction trend may last longer.
The cancellation level for the downside five-wave scenario (red) is a close above the 5286 level, as this would mean a breakout of the first wave area.
If this happens, the market may form a more complex correction structure and we will update the scenario if this happens.
The price area 5204 is considered a high liquidity area and it corresponds to the target at the end of wave 4 using Fibonacci measurement. Therefore, this area is a potential area to look for sales opportunities.
To execute a sell trade, you must wait for the H4 momentum to reach the overbought zone and then look for a sell entry signal based on system conditions.
trading plan
Sales area: 5203 – 5205
Level: 5233
TP1:5102
TP2:4955
