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XAUUSD and GOLD View H9.
Tensions in the Middle East drive oil prices higher, safe-haven demand supports gold (English)
– Oil prices rose after U.S. President Trump said military action against Iran could last four to five weeks, raising concerns about long-term instability in the Middle East. Although U.S. and Israeli forces have not directly targeted Iranian oil facilities, traders worry that the situation could escalate if the conflict continues.
— Iran conducted a limited attack on regional oil assets, mostly seen as a warning, but markets are focusing on broader supply risks. The main concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. Although there has not been an official closure, shipping activity has slowed due to safety risks and any prolonged disruption could lead to significant price increases. ITC rebounded to the $74-75 area before falling back to around $71; a hold above $70 would support another move higher, while a break below could lead to a deeper drop to $65 to $66.
Brent crude rose above $74 and tested the $78-79 zone, and despite a plethora of technical signals, a clear break above $79 could lead to further gains.
Gold-increased geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand ()
Gold has gained momentum as rising tensions in the Middle East add to global uncertainty and push investors toward safe-haven assets. As geopolitical risks rise, capital typically shifts from risk-sensitive assets to defensive assets such as gold, which is seen as a store of value during crises.
–Global inflationary pressures could increase if conflict disrupts oil supplies and energy prices rise. Higher inflation tends to support gold, especially as real interest rates remain under control. On the other hand, uncertainty surrounding global growth may limit central bankers’ attempts to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which should help gold prices maintain their upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, the trend for gold remains bullish as long as higher declines continue to form. In fact, strong geopolitical headlines could trigger a sharp intraday rally, but unless tensions ease significantly, setbacks are more likely to attract buyers.
Important:
However, any signs of easing or significant dollar appreciation could lead to a temporary correction.
