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XAUUSD Second half of the year: Intensified geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven demand, gold prices hold at 5,300 level
Gold prices remain firmly above 5,300 points after a strong rebound driven by escalating military tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran. The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East significantly boosted safe-haven capital flows, pushing spot gold to break through 5,400 points, and then closed back above 5,300 points per ounce.
Heightened geopolitical risks and concerns about possible disruptions to oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz have added to inflationary pressures, structurally supporting gold. Despite some intermittent pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, short-term momentum remains constructive.
Technical Structure – H2 Overview
On the second half time frame, price still follows a broader uptrend line, continuing a series of higher and lower lows.
The 5,335 – 5,338 area is a short-term buy zone consistent with a retest of the trendline and a smaller FVG. Holding above this area can keep the bullish structure intact.
Above this, the FVG sell zone of 5,468 – 5,472 represents the next liquidity target, followed by a stronger supply zone around 5,547. If this momentum continues, the price could extend towards the previous all-time high near 5,600.
The downside is that if the structure weakens, the strong liquidity area of 5,180-5,200 will become the next major area of demand.
Trading scenario
Bullish continuation scenario:
If the price continues above 5,335 – 5,338 and forms another higher low, a trend towards 5,468 – 5,472 is possible. A sustained breakout of this area could open the way to 5,547 and possibly even an all-time high of 5,600, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate.
Rejection scenarios when liquidity is high:
If the price reaches 5,468 – 5,547 and shows signs of rejection or failure to stay above liquidity, it may correct towards trendline support before expanding further.
Scenario of downward structural change:
A decisive break below 5,335 and loss of trendline support could weaken the current bullish structure, exposing the liquid range of 5,180 – 5,200 as the next bearish reference.
Overall, gold remains structurally supported, but volatility triggered by geopolitical headlines requires close monitoring of liquidity interactions at key points.
Follow this channel to stay informed about market structure and liquidity.
