Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets linked to the Iran bomb

Prediction market users have made – and profited from – huge bets around the bombing of Iran by the US and Israeli forces.

On Polymarket, $529 million was sold in contracts related to the period of the scheme, according to Bloomberg. An analysis by the analytics agency Bubblemaps SA found that six accounts that had just been created made a profit of $1 million by betting correctly that the US would hit Iran by February 28 – behavior that could indicate insider trading.

The betting may only reflect more speculation about US intentions in Iran, but the CEO of Bubblemaps, Nicolas Vaiman, said that the publication of information “about war or conflict,” and the anonymity of Polymarket, “could inspire those in the know to act quickly.”

Back in January, analytics company Polysights did too he realized More and more bets are on the possibility that Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will no longer be in office at the end of March.

In response to concerns that such betting could lead to murder, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said“We don’t identify markets that are linked to death. When there are markets that result in death, we create laws to prevent people from profiting from death.” He also said that Mr. Kalshi will refund all the money on these bets.