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Despite interest rate differences between the Federal Reserve and other Western central banks, the U.S. dollar will remain the weakest currency in the foreign exchange market in 2025. As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair has enjoyed broadly positive performance in 2025 and continued positive performance in the first quarter of 2026, although the status quo on monetary policy is likely to persist until next June’s decision and the assumption of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman.
Trade wars, budget deficits, public debt, declining reliance on the U.S. dollar, and an increasing share of gold in countries’ foreign exchange reserves; all these factors explain why the U.S. dollar has not benefited from monetary policy divergence.
How long can the EUR/USD currency pair maintain an upward trend in the Forex market?
There are two technical factors that play a crucial role in answering this question:
• As long as EUR/USD does not break above major support levels, it will remain in an uptrend. The $1.15 level, along with the 200-day moving average, which institutional traders are watching closely, form the key focus in this context.
• EUR/USD will continue to trend upward as long as institutional investors maintain net long positions in EUR/USD futures (CFTC COT report)
Currently, the CFTC’s COT report shows that institutional investors’ net positions on the EUR/USD currency pair are still on an upward trend. Likewise, the proportion of institutional traders holding long positions in EUR/USD remains above 50%, as shown in the data below.
Specifically, the latest data showed that asset managers and institutional investors strengthened their long positions in the EUR/USD futures contract, while short positions remained limited. This structure reflects strong and ongoing belief in structural support for EURUSD, although monetary conditions in the United States remain relatively tight. High levels of net positioning also suggest gradual accumulation rather than a sharp speculative boom, making the current trend more sustainable.
Graphically, the medium-term bullish dynamic remains intact as long as the price trades above the $1.15 area, which represents both former major high turning support and technical extreme territory. A clear break above this level would destabilize the base bullish scenario and open the way for a deeper correction phase that could extend into the previous intermediate support area around $1.12. Conversely, stability above this key level would support the continuation of the euro’s underlying trend.
The chart below shows the daily Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD currency pair.
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