momentum

– Momentum on the daily frame (D1) has reversed to the downside → so we expect to witness a few days of downtrend or sideways movement.

– H4 Momentum Rising → The bullish wave may continue in the short term, or prices may trade sideways before a clear reversal signal emerges.

– H1 momentum is in the overbought zone → There is a high possibility of a short-term downward correction or continued sideways movement of the H1 frame.

wave structure

D1 time range
As the momentum of D1 reverses to the downside, we expect a deeper downward wave to complete Wave C.
If the price does not fall significantly and continues to trade sideways, the correction may turn into a more complex structure before it is completed.

H4 time frame
Price closed within a triangle pattern and is currently retesting the upper boundary of the triangle.
As H4 gains momentum, the uptrend may continue for a while.

But a downward breakthrough of the 5090 mark will confirm the continuation of the downward trend, complete the triangle ABCDE structure of wave B, and then turn to wave C.

H1 time frame
The current bullish structure appears to consist of a three-wave ABC pattern (blue).

Important areas of resistance:

– 5190: Fibonacci 0.618
– 5211: WC = WA
– 5216: Fibonacci 0.786

The narrow region between 5211 – 5216 is considered a strong convergence region.
We will focus on this area and look for sales opportunities.

H4 momentum may take 1-2 additional candles to reach overbought territory or prepare for a reversal.
If the price reaches one of the resistance areas mentioned above and a reversal signal occurs in the H4 momentum, this will be a strong sell signal in line with the H4 trend.

The entry point is when first half momentum signals a bearish reversal.

trading plan

Sales area: 5211 – 5213
Stop loss: 5231
First target: 5125
Second target: 5102

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