OANDA: XAUUSD Gold Update by MR_gold2 — TradingView

First: General technical analysis
• Gold is moving within a medium-term uptrend channel.
• There was a strong push to around 5600 before a sharp pullback.
• Currently, the price has returned to test the middle of the ascending channel.
• Stability above 5000 reinforces the uptrend.

➡️The overall trend is bullish, but it faces important resistance.

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Second: Elliott Wave Analysis

Most likely scenario:
• Upward push wave to 5600 (wave 3).
• Sharp correction to around 4700 (wave 4).
• Possible Wave 5 targets currently have begun:
• 5200
• 5400
• 5600 retest top.

🔴If it exceeds 4850, the fifth wave scenario is cancelled.

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Third: Time Analysis
• Correction requires a full cycle time.
• We are now at the beginning of a new upcycle.
• Typically 5200-5300 is tested in multiple sessions.

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Fourth: Numerical Analysis (Fibonacci)
• 5000 powerful digital anchor areas.
• 5200 represents the 50% resistance level.
• 5400 – 5500 represents a 61.8% correction.
• 5600 major peaks.

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Fifth: Fundamental Analysis

Influencing factors:
The President of the United States announced a 10% tariff and later raised the tax rate to 15%. This has a positive impact on gold.
• Interest rate cut expectations.
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, the expansion of U.S. military forces in the Middle East, and ongoing threats.
• The U.S. dollar weakened.
• Central bank requirements.

📌 Any weakness in the US dollar = immediate support for gold.
📌Significant increase in returns = corrective pressure.

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Sixth: Price Action
• Recent clear rising lows.
• Consolidation above 5000 points.
• Structural breaks without descent.
• A break above 5150 provides a strong boost.

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Seventh: Support and Resistance Levels

🔴Resistor:
• 5150 is a nearby resistance level
• 5200 is an important resistance level
• 5400 main resistance level
• 5,600 historic summits

🟢Support:
• 5000 strong psychological support
• 4920 important support
• 4850 main support
• 4700 Axial Support

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Eighth: Supply and demand areas

🔴Display area:
• 5200 – 5400
• 5450 – 5600

🟢Requirement areas:
• 4950 – 5000
• 4850 – 4900
• 4700 – 4750

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Ninth: Technical model
• Ascending channel.
• Correct and then rise again.
• Probability of bullish continuation model.
• Failure to break above 5200 may lead to the formation of a short-term double top.

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Tenth: Harmonic Model

possibility:

🔹 AB=CD bullish, target 5300-5400
or
🔹Bat form rises from 4850 area

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🔥 Professional recommendation-Gold Master🔥

The strongest scene
Stable above 5100
Target:
5118
5127
5138
5157

5196
5205
5211
5228
5257

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Sales scenario:
The price is stable below 5090
low target
5085
5074
5057
5020
5000
4985
4957
4900

📌Conclusion

The overall trend is upward
Gold is at the start of a new payments wave
5200 decision-making area is very important

Note: Do not enter the market directly at the opening. Wait for prices to remain steady and calm