momentum

– W1 (weekly frame): Weekly momentum is still declining. Therefore, the downtrend or sideways movement may continue for another 1-2 weeks until W1 momentum enters oversold territory.

– D1 (daily frame): Daily momentum is rising. The bullish or sideways trend may continue for another 1-2 days until D1 momentum reaches overbought territory.

– H4 (4-hour frame): The momentum in H4 has reversed to the upside. Prices may continue to rise or trade sideways today until H4 momentum enters overbought territory and then reverses lower.

→ Overall picture: The weekly frame remains negative, while the rise in D1 and H4 is considered a corrective movement within a larger correction structure.

wave structure
Frame of the Week (W1)

The current correction movement is 4 weeks old and prices are moving sideways.
The market may still be within the weekly adjustment structure.
– When W1 momentum enters oversold territory, we expect that the upward wave may continue for several weeks.

Daily Frame (D1)

D1 momentum is rising, but the gains may not be strong against the backdrop of a weekly pullback.
– Price may rise slightly above the upper boundary of the triangle to complete wave B.
– After the end of wave B, wave C is expected to begin downward.

Four hour frame (H4)

– We may currently be in the final stages of a B-wave correction pattern in the form of a triangle ABCDE.
Price may be in an e-wave and may forcefully penetrate the upper boundary of the triangle to attract buyers, then quickly move back inside the triangle and begin a sharp decline.

– Since the B-wave triangle often absorbs most of the previous downward momentum, the completed decline may not be very deep and is often equivalent to the maximum width of the triangle.

The start of the next downward wave will not be confirmed until the lower boundary of the triangle is clearly breached.

mobility and convergence zones

– The volume profile shows the presence of a large liquidity area consistent with the Fibonacci target near the 5102 level (marked in red).
– This area may be ideal for finding selling opportunities with confirmation signals.

trading plan

– Sales area: 5102 – 5104
– Stop loss: 5132
– First target (TP1): 4955
– Second target (TP2): 4827
– Third target (TP3): 4406

logical conclusion

– The weekly trend remains within the corrective/bearish background.
The rise in D1 and H4 may be to complete wave B.
The appearance of a triangle on H4 indicates a possible false breakout before a decline.
– Level 5102 is an important gathering area → give priority to selling scenes after confirmation.

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