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XAUUSD – Brian | Pressure below trend line, will it expand next week?
Gold is in a contraction structure within an H2 framework, with bearish resistance pushing downwards while higher lows are still being defended. After being rejected from the recent highs, the price is currently hovering around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone.
Volatility is decreasing.
Expansion is coming.
🔎Technical architecture
Obvious downtrend line limits attempts to the upside
Uptrend line supports structure from below
Fibonacci retracement levels remain above 0.786 record
Liquidity is below 4,900 and above 5,050
Prices around 4,940-4,960 are the middle of the squeeze – a breakout has not happened yet, but this is a consolidation phase.
🌍 Basic background
The minutes of the recent RBA meeting suggested that further interest rate hikes may be more likely than market expectations. While NAB still expects to raise interest rates again this year, the tone reinforces that the central bank remains cautious on inflation.
More expensive, longer novels:
Support USD Resistance
Short-term restrictions on sharp rises in gold prices
Increased volatility in both directions
Markets are once again adjusting expectations – gold is reacting through pressure rather than trend.
📊 Weekly Overview
🔴Scenario 1-Execute liquidity reduction first
If price breaks above rising support:
Withdrawal is about 4,850 – 4,800
Test deeper demand areas
Forming underlying base before rally
This would be a typical pre-expansion liquidity run.
🟢 Scenario 2 – Bullish breakout of the trendline
If the falling resistance is completely broken:
Recovery above 5,000–5,050
Target liquidity reaches 5,100+
Try to continue every week
But without strong volume expansion, upside may still be preserved.
🎯 Next week’s trading highlights
Avoid aggressive trading under pressure
Waiting for liquidity recovery + structural confirmation
Watch for triangle breakouts with increased volume
Key Areas: Support 4,850 | Resistance 5,050
Gold is being prepared.
The next direction may be to withdraw liquidity ahead of expansion.
Structure first.
Liquidity again.
Momentum three.
Follow Brian for a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD structure and execution plan.
