Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
XAUUSD (H1) – Segment structure remains active | Mid-term sell-off continues as weekend approaches
Gold is trying to stabilize after a sharp downward expansion, but the first half structure still points to seller control. The recent rally has been corrective and is currently reversing towards previous support turning into a supply level. Until price regains supply with clear acceptance, the most likely path is to continue falling towards liquidity.
market structure
After reaching the top, price pushed decisively downward, breaking previous internal support and pulling out a deeply countervailing leg. This movement usually leaves behind two things:
The supply above is unmet/unbalanced (sellers start entering first)
Sell-side liquidity magnets are as follows (as the market tends to rebalance)
The current rally appears to be a standard testing phase rather than a confirmed reversal. Unless prices can regain their broken structure, the first half could easily set lower highs.
Main monitoring areas (see figure)
1) Main selling area (support shift + Fibonacci 0.382)
5,020 – 5,060
This is the most important area for the continuation of the downtrend. It combines support turned resistance and the 0.382 retracement zone. If the price moves back into this range and shows rejection (weak close/long upper shadow/failure to hold above), it will lean towards the next lower stage.
2) Retest/reaction area
4,960 – 4,980
This is an area of lower supply where prices may stall during the day. Acceptance below this area will strengthen the downtrend and keep the market “heavy”.
3) The first bearish magnet (liquidity buy zone)
4,830 – 4,860
Here are the nearest liquidity pools below. If the supply sales setting is activated, this area is the first logical target to test and clean the market.
4) Mid-term “reset” zone (deeper liquidity)
4,720 – 4,750
If 4,830–4,860 were not retained or cleared, the structure would have allowed deeper slide into the area. A more significant reaction may occur here, but only after increased liquidity.
Mid-term bias (as the weekend approaches)
The chart is currently priced in a bearish sequence: Down → Corrective Rebound → Sustained Risk.
To maintain the bearish thinking, the price must remain below 5,060. If this restriction persists, the market may continue to move lower to clear sell-side liquidity as the weekend approaches.
Conditions for an uptrend to be invalid:
A clean bounce and acceptance above 5,060 would reduce assumptions for continued selling and open the way for a broader recovery.
Implementation Notes
Avoid buying during corrections. The market remains within the supply zone.
The best readings are at this level: wait for rejection at 5,020-5,060 or confirmation of acceptance above this level.
Cash withdrawals are common during weekend hours. Let price reach this area first and then react.
in conclusion
As long as gold prices trade below 5,020-5,060, the upward trend remains corrective and the market will still enter another downward cycle towards 4,860 and possibly 4,750 if liquidity opens up.
Follow the structure. Trading levels. Ignore the noise.
