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XAUUSD (H4) – Liam’s Weekly Overview
The upward trend is under pressure but has not been broken. Pay attention to the retest feedback.
quick summary
Gold is experiencing a sharp correction after a prolonged period of gains. The recent sell-off has broken the short-term sharp uptrend, but prices have yet to confirm a complete trend reversal in H4.
At this point, the market enters a rebalancing phase. In the week ahead, the opportunity lies not in predicting trends but in trading the reaction of major structural levels, Fibonacci and FVG areas.
Market structure overview
The previous uptrend lost momentum after a vertical expansion.
Prices falling below an aggressive trendline indicate trend exhaustion rather than an automatic reversal.
The current price action suggests a corrective structure with the potential for range development or trend resumption following a rebalancing of liquidity.
➡️The trend remains neutral to bullish, depending on price reaction at key levels.
Main technology areas this week
Major Retest of Buy Areas: Trendline Retest of Areas Around 4850 – 4900
This area has already seen a reaction, becoming the first decision point for buyers.
Fibonacci 0.618/main reaction zone: 5030 – 5050
The pivot level is in the middle of the range. Acceptance above it is good for continuation; rejection can keep the price correcting.
FVG + Fibonacci coincidence: 5235 – 5260
This is a major area of imbalance. If the price rises into this area, expect strong reactions and bilateral trades.
Liquidity area/minimum: 4540 area
This remains a deeper lower target if higher levels fail to hold and the correction widens.
Weekly Scenario (Liam Method: Level Trading)
Scenario A – Hold to retest the trendline (bullish continuation)
If price continues to hold above the trendline retest area and establishes higher lows:
Looking for bullish extension to 5030 → 5235
A breakout and acceptance above the FVG zone would open the possibility of continuing the uptrend.
Logic: This confirms that the move is a healthy correction within the broader uptrend structure.
Scenario B – Rejection from the middle of the range (extended correction)
If the price fails to recover and remain above 5030 – 5050:
Price volatility and corrections are expected.
Risks shift towards further declines to 4540 points.
Logic: Failure to hold the 0.618 area will put the market in rebalancing mode.
Scenario C – FVG Testing and Rejection
If the price rises significantly to 5235 – 5260:
This area is favorable for reactions and profit-taking.
Any sustainable bullish continuation would need to be above this level.
Logic: The FVG area after a strong sell-off often acts as a distribution point or reaction point before a trend is established.
Highlights of the week
Market volatility remains high after sell-off – expect a false breakout.
Avoid placing trades in the middle of a range without confirmation.
Let price set the level of acceptance or rejection before making a commitment.
This is a week of patience and execution, not faith.
Weekly highlights:
Will gold hold to retest the trendline and establish higher lows, or will it lose ground in the 5030-5050 area and sink further into value?
——Liam
