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1. Momentum
Daily time range (D1)
– Daily frame momentum remains overlapping, suggesting the main uptrend may continue.
The persistence of overbought conditions for a long time reflects the market’s overly optimistic state and is also a warning of high risks.
H4 time frame
– H4 momentum is approaching overbought territory.
→ Over the next few hours, the H4 frame may experience corrective movement.
H1 time frame
– First half momentum is currently in overbought territory.
→ This indicates that the short-term upward force is beginning to weaken, and a pullback in the H1 frame is expected before the trend resumes.
2. Elliott wave structure
Wave structure on the daily frame (D1)
On the daily chart, we still notice the extension of the blue fifth wave.
This behavior is logical given the current global situation of higher geopolitical and economic risks, which has prompted capital flows to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
However, large inflows into safe assets are also a warning sign about the risks inherent in the global economy.
As mentioned on Sunday, recent FOMC meetings historically have often occurred during times of price volatility or correction, and after the decision is released, a long-term upward trend begins.
The difference this time is that prices rose strongly before the FOMC decision was released, so expect wild price swings as today’s news comes out.
Wave structure on H4 frame
As noted in yesterday’s trading plan, the latest corrective movement does not differ in size, timing, or objectives from previous corrections within the third wave (marked yellow) structure.
→ This strengthens the possibility that this move is just a sub-wave within the third yellow wave and that the uptrend remains intact.
Wave structure on H1 frame
On frame H1, we notice that a structure of five black waves forms within the third yellow wave.
– As I mentioned before, during extended waves, it is difficult and impractical to accurately determine the wave number during the price movement, especially when market psychology is at its extremes.
However, there is one clear point to note:
Looking at the history of RSI overbought conditions (shown in the chart), we notice that each correction has been followed by a new price high.
– Currently, the RSI is once again strongly overbought, so after the correction, I would expect a new up move to make higher highs, at least until the RSI shows a clear divergence signal at the highs.
3. Important price areas
– As the momentum in the second half and first half prepares to reverse to the downside, we focus on waiting for lower price areas to look for buying opportunities in line with the main trend.
Potential areas of support
– 5192
– 5101
upper resistance zone
– In the above chart, multiple Fibonacci levels of different wave structures intersect around the 5323 level.
→ This area is a strong and important resistance level.
4. Trading plan
Buying Area #1
– Entrance area: 5193 – 5191
– Stop loss: 5172
– First target (TP1): 5249
– Second target (TP2): 5323
Purchase Area No. 2
– Entrance area: 5102 – 5100
– Stop loss: 4982
– First target (TP1): 5192
– Second target (TP2): 5323
