Purge of China’s top generals puts military in crisis

The top leadership of the People’s Liberation Army is in tatters.

The weekend purges of China’s top general, Zhang Youxia, and another senior military officer, General Liu Zhenli, have raised serious questions about what fuels the power struggle among China’s elites and what it means for China’s ability to fight, whether it is ambitions to seize Taiwan by force or become embroiled in another major regional conflict.

Zhang, 75, is vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the Communist Party group led by country leader Xi Jinping that controls the armed forces.

The Central Military Commission, which usually consists of about seven people, now has only two members – Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin.

All others were taken down in an “anti-corruption” crackdown after previous waves of detentions.

The Central Military Commission controls millions of military personnel. Its power was so great that chairmanship of this body was the only position Deng Xiaoping held as China’s absolute ruler.

Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute said it was unprecedented that only Xi Jinping and a Central Military Commission general were left.

“The People’s Liberation Army is in chaos,” he told the BBC, adding that there was now a “significant leadership void” in the Chinese military.

When asked what exactly caused so many senior generals to be eliminated, he said: “There are a lot of rumors circulating. At the moment we don’t know what is true and what is false… But it is certainly not good for Xi Jinping and his leadership and control of the People’s Liberation Army.”

Associate Professor Zhang Jiayan of the National University of Singapore also said that he was not sure what the real reason was for Zhang’s resignation, but there were many speculations about it.

“Everything from leaking nuclear secrets to the United States to plotting coups and factional infighting. There were even rumors of a shootout in Beijing,” he said.

“But the downfalls of Zhang and Liu and the wild speculation highlight two things: Xi Jinping remains unimpeachable and there are significant limits on Beijing’s messaging, which heightens uncertainty and fuels such speculation.”

The official announcement that Zhang and Liu were “under investigation” said they were accused of “serious violations of discipline and law,” a euphemism for corruption.

The People’s Liberation Army Daily later made it clear in an editorial that the move showed the Communist Party’s “zero tolerance” attitude toward “punishing corruption… no matter who it is or how high their position is.”

Specific charges against all of these generals have not been released to the public and may never be. However, their listing as being investigated would almost certainly mean at least a custodial sentence.

The editorial of “Liberation Army Daily” has already accused Zhang and Liu of being guilty, saying that they “seriously failed the trust and expectations of the Party Central Committee” and “trampled on and destroyed the Central Military Commission.”

The attacks on the generals may be related to corruption, but given the results of these past purges, they may also be related to power politics.

China certainly has a corruption problem since Xi Jinping came to power, but its leader has also been accused of using an anti-corruption campaign to deploy the party’s feared disciplinary inspection team to weed out potential political rivals or government officials who are not entirely loyal to him.

This gives General Secretary Xi uncontested control not seen since Chairman Mao.

However, this type of leadership can also backfire.

In the military, for example, a climate of suspicion can lead to cautious or even weak decision-making.

Zhang’s father was a revolutionary comrade of Xi’s father. The general has a long history with Xi and they were seen as close allies before the turmoil of recent days threatened to make matters worse amid a belief that no one was safe.

He was also one of the few senior officers in the PLA with combat experience, making his loss significant to the military.

Morris said his ouster also poses long-term problems for Xi.

Xi Jinping may have asserted his authority again, but the turmoil means continued friction, he said.

“It’s certainly a bad situation for Xi Jinping, and I think there’s going to be serious turmoil in the PLA for the next few years with Xi Jinping and his leaders – especially the People’s Liberation Army.”

The purge of the most senior generals has also brought scrutiny to lower-level officers, who may be wondering who’s next?

Given the fate of those mentioned above, they may also not welcome promotion to the lethal zone where Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption spotlight is always trained on you.

All of this comes as Beijing ramps up pressure on Taiwan, threatening to seize the self-ruled island through a full-scale offensive at some point.

Analysts will weigh how much these removals hinder that possibility, although some believe it will do little to curb Beijing’s ambitions.

“This purge will not affect the People’s Republic of China’s ambition to control Taiwan. That depends on the CCP as a whole, especially Xi Jinping,” Zhang said.

“What may matter about the purge is the operational decision-making. Without senior military professionals or intimidated military professionals, decisions about escalation and aggression against Taiwan will focus more on Xi Jinping and his preferences and tendencies.”

Additional reporting by BBC’s Yvette Tan