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Current Trend: Uptrend showing signs of reversal
First: Basic viewpoints
Gold continues its strong upward trend, supported by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, expectations for easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and continued purchases by the central bank, maintaining a clearly bullish technical pattern. The strategy focuses on buying when prices move lower in the direction of the trend and focusing on support levels during pullbacks.
2: Basic factors
Sustained safe-haven demand: Geopolitical and trade uncertainty continue to drive capital towards gold.
Favorable macroeconomic environment: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, continued gold purchases by the central bank, and record ETF inflows provide a medium- to long-term basis for gold’s rise.
USD Weakness: The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level in four months (96.94), further supporting gold prices.
Third: Technical Analysis
Orientation structure:
Daily chart: Prices continue to rise along the short-term moving average, with no signs of peaking, and the overall trend remains strong.
4-hour chart: The price has broken through the previous high consolidation range, and the moving average is in a bullish position, supporting the bullish momentum.
1-hour chart: After opening higher in early trading, the price entered a high consolidation stage, with the short-term moving average diverging upward and the support level gradually moving higher.
Critical level:
Resistance: 5110-5130 (historical extension zone)
Support: 5020-5000 (basic support range)
fourth. trading strategy
Key Trend: Buy the Dip
Purchasing center settings:
Entry area: Gradually enter the market when the price stabilizes in the 5000-5020 range
Stop loss: within 4990
Target: 5110-5130, may expand to 5150-5180 after breakthrough
Sales Center (Assistant):
Status: It touched the 5110-5130 range for the first time, with signs of rejection.
Stop loss: above 5140
Target: 5080-5060 (short-term callback opportunity)
Five: Risk management reminder
Gold prices are at record levels, with significant short-term gains, and technical corrections need to be treated with caution.
High sensitivity to fundamental news requires precise position sizing and stop loss compliance.
Key factors to watch include dollar trends, geopolitical developments and Fed policy expectations.
Sixth: Important Notes on Timing
European and American session: If prices stabilize after falling, the upward trend may resume. Continued consolidation at higher levels could indicate a short-term top is forming.
Key levels: A break above 5,000 could lead to a deeper correction, while a break above 5,130 could open further upside.
Note: The market is highly volatile. It is recommended to trade with a small position and avoid chasing orders. Adjust your strategy in real time based on market conditions.
