Microdramas like TikTok will make billions this year, even if they seem to suck

Emily attends college during the day, but works at night at a paid club to pay for it – she doesn’t think anyone will know her secret, until one day, her mysterious English teacher shows up! Did he recognize him? Will his secret be revealed? Pay 60 “tokens” to see what’s going to happen, or you can watch commercials, or… just buy a VIP pass for $20 a week and skip all commercials.

The stories are satirical and exaggerated, full of dramatic and scripted action. Yet these “microdramas” — TikTok-like shows with episodes lasting about a minute — are generating billions of dollars a year.

First popular in China, microdrama programming is about to have a breakout year in the US programming market. According to technology firm Appfigures, ReelShort will reach an estimated $1.2 billion in consumer spending in 2025, up 119% from 2024; another leading app, DramaBox, generated $276 million in consumer spending last year, doubling its 2024 numbers.

The market doesn’t seem to be slowing down. TikTok has just launched its own standalone microdrama app PineDramais a new program from Hollywood veterans called GammaTime he just raised $14 million, including checks from angel investors like Alexis Ohanian, Kris Jenner, and Kim Kardashian.

It’s amazing to see short, scripted apps succeeding even five years removed from the Quibi implosion. Quibi wanted to be like Netflix, but with 10-minute episodes designed to be watched on the go. Founded by Dreamworks co-founder and former Disney chairman Jeffrey Katzenberg, Quibi raised more than $1.75 billion from major Hollywood studios, then produced shows with stars like Liam Hemsworth, Reese Witherspoon, and Anna Kendrick.

Nobody wanted Quibi, and the app became a punchline because of its popularity. But ReelShort – a program whose top shows are “My Sister Is the Warlord Queen” and “In Love with a Single Farmer-Daddy” – is a winner.

“How is it that Quibi failed? It’s only for women,” Eric Wei, financial analyst and CEO of Karat Financial, told TechCrunch. “They do romance, where all the headlines are like, ‘My Alpha.’ This is like ’50 Shades of Grey,’ but a vertical movie.

OnlyFans isn’t the best comparison (the shows may be psychological, though not porn), but Wei is right that sex is for sale. When a story appears to be on fire, you will be prompted to view an ad or pay to continue. But the rewards aren’t compelling, so you keep looking, only to see another pop-up asking you for more money, or some obscure in-app fee.

The business model behind these apps also adopts the same dark practices as mobile games. They are designed to get users hooked on free stuff, giving them free logging software money every day. As people spend more time on the program – which is designed to be addictive – they need more money or tokens to unlock more parts of the show, but there is no way to get enough money to fix it without spending real money.

Sometimes the sub-drama is interactive, allowing the viewer to decide which way the story will go – but the good way (the woman confronts her abusive ex) will destroy the signs, while the bad way (the abuser does not face consequences for his actions) is free.

Soon, a vulnerable viewer can opt out and pay for an ad-free subscription of $20 per week, which, after a month, will cost more than subscriptions to HBO Max, Netflix, Hulu, Disney + and Paramount Plus combined.

As AI enters the picture, these companies will release content at an alarming rate. LLMs can’t write classic dramas like HBO’s “Succession,” or sitcoms like “The Big Bang Theory,” but the best microdramas are so predictable and well-crafted that they don’t require a lot of human intelligence and creativity. You’d be surprised how many microdramas start with a scene where a girl with glasses is pushed down by a bully schoolmate, and saved by a popular jock, who thinks she’s really cute if she just takes off her glasses.

PocketFM, the Lightspeed-backed audio-series platform, has already embraced AI. Last year, it released a tool that calls CoPilottrained over thousands of hours to understand the “beats” of a formulaic story, helping writers add cliffhangers or plot twists to their stories that predictably will make the audience want to watch more. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian company called Holywater, which raised $22 million to support its Microdrama My Drama program, it calls itself an “AI-first entertainment network.”

While microdramas may go AI-driven, Dhar Mann Studios CEO Sean Atkins thinks there’s also an opportunity for creators.

“Think about it – the short form is smaller than the long form, and the vertical is less,” Atkins told TechCrunch. “I think you’re going to see a few manufacturers start to do really well, especially as they know how to make things cheaper.”

These companies have a good business model on their hands. But it’s one that thrives on limited time, in-app purchases, and features that sound like “Cocomelon” for adults.