XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – January 8, 2025 OANDA:XAUUSD by WavePoint_FX — TradingView

Daily Frame (D1)
– Daily momentum starts to turn bearish
– We need to wait for the close of today’s candle to confirm
– If the position is confirmed to be closed, the price will most likely continue to fall in the next few days.

Frame H4
– H4 momentum is compressed in oversold territory
– This suggests that the downward trend in the H4 framework may continue, but the strength of the downward momentum is starting to weaken
– When H4 momentum reversal is confirmed, an upward corrective bounce is likely

Frame H1
– Momentum in the first half is in oversold territory and is poised to reverse upward
This shows that the current H1 frame decline has weakened, and there is a possibility of a short-term rebound.

2. Elliott wave structure

Daily structure (D1)
– The wave structure on the daily frame has not changed
– Daily momentum reversal supports Y wave completion scenario
– Possible targets of Y-wave:
– 4072
– 3761

H4 structure
– With Q4 momentum still in oversold territory, I expect further downward push before a clear upward reversal in Q4 momentum.
The reason is that the current structural settlement is still relatively shallow.
– If the H4 momentum reverses directly upward from the current level, the price will most likely break above the 4500 level, at which point:
– Wave scene on H1 frame will be cancelled
– I will update the analysis if this happens

H1 structure
– The current decline has yet to confirm a clear wave structure
– I temporarily numbered it 1–2–3–4–5 (green) for subsequent use
-Main conditions:
– This scenario remains valid as long as the next rally does not break the top of wave C (red) at 4500 points.
– After that, I expect a strong and pulsatile decline in wave 3 (green)
– When there is a sharp and rapid decline, it is not recommended to try to buy against the trend.

3. Volume overview and important price areas

– Volume curve shows price finding support near the 4440 area
– As long as H4 momentum remains compressed, I’d like to see:
– Strong decline, at least towards 4401
Better to test the liquidity area around 4376
A rebound from this area would more strongly confirm the bearish case

4. Potential sales areas

– We have two main sales areas:
– District 4484
– District 4440
– Condition: The level must be broken first and then retested before entering into selling

– Furthermore, according to yesterday’s chart analysis, the 4521 area is still a strong selling area and is still valid

5. Trading plan

– Sales area: 4481 – 4484
– Stop loss: 4502
– First target: 4440
– Second target: 4376
– Third goal: 4348