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1. Momentum Analysis
Frame of the Week (W1)
The momentum of the weekly frame (W1) has clearly turned downward,
Therefore, the main medium-term trend remains bearish.
Daily Frame (D1)
Momentum on the daily frame (D1) is preparing to turn bullish,
This suggests that an upward corrective movement may continue for several days this week.
H4 time frame
H4 momentum is downward,
However, the signal was confirmed at Friday’s close.
Due to weekend market closures and the presence of geopolitical risks (United States-Venezuela),
We will wait for the market to open on Monday and monitor price action before making any decisions.
2. Elliott wave structure
Weekly frame structure (W1)
The weekly candle closed strongly bearish,
Confirming that W1’s momentum has turned bearish,
It further confirms the formation of wave Y (purple) within wave 4 (yellow).
Purple Y wave target
– First target: 4072
– Second goal: 3761
Daily frame structure (D1)
Sharp decline from the 4549 area
It may have formed wave 1 or wave A of the purple wave Y structure.
As the momentum of D1 is getting ready to turn bullish,
Over the next few days, we may see an upward corrective wave (Wave 2 or Wave B).
Scene cancellation conditions (important)
– If D1 momentum enters overbought territory and then reverses downwards
At the same time, the price breaks above the 4549 level upwards
→ This scenario of calculating Elliott Wave becomes invalid and must be re-evaluated.
H4 frame structure
On the H4 frame, I expect a bullish correction structure in the form of ABC (red).
– Price is currently trading within the high liquidity zone 4317 – 4348
– This area is a strong support area
Red Wave B is expected to end within this area
after that
Red Wave C is expected to rise towards the upper liquidity area
– Especially around 4471
– Complete ABC structure before major downtrend resumption
important resistance area
– 4445
– Fibonacci level of the last bearish wave 0.618
– Red wave C = Convergence area of red wave A
→ 1st observation area for sale
– 4471
– Boundary between areas of high liquidity and areas of low liquidity
→ Next reserved sales area
3. Trading plan
First sales scenario
– Sales area: 4444 – 4446
– Stop loss: 4455
– First target: 4405
– Second target: 4348
– Third goal: 4072
Second sales scene
– Sales area: 4470 – 4472
– Stop loss: 4490
– First target: 4405
– Second goal: 4348
– Third goal: 4072
