Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Geopolitical shock risk, gold may rise only in trade liquidity and reaction zone
quick summary
Trump’s claim that Maduro had been detained, and Venezuela’s response (they did not know where he and his wife were and asked for proof of life), sharply increased geopolitical uncertainty. For gold, this is a typical trigger for a gap/up on Monday’s open.
So my rule for Monday is: take your time and only trade liquid areas and confirmed reactions on the chart.
1) Macro Background: Why Gold Prices May Rise on Monday
Rising geopolitical tensions tend to drive capital flows into safe-haven assets such as gold.
When the facts are unclear and tensions rise, markets can open in the following ways:
✅ Sharp rises, ✅ Liquidity withdrawals, ✅ Spreads widening.
➡️ Best approach: wait for price to reach that level and then trade based on the reaction, not the headline.
2) Technical Vision (H4 – based on your diagram)
After a sharp move, gold is currently moving within a larger structure, and your chart clearly highlights the key areas:
Main areas
4450 sell test area (retracement area where price may sell off)
Liquidity 4330 (Main Liquidity Magnet)
OB 4309 (Order Item/Short Term Response Area)
Support 4277 (medium support)
Buy Area 4203–4206 (Deep Support/Swing Buy Area)
3) Monday Trading Scenario (Liam Method: Horizontal Trading)
Scenario A (priority): sharp rise → sell near 4450
✅ If the gold price increases at the opening address:
Sell around 4450 (sell test area)
SL: Above recent swing highs (improved in the short term)
TP1:4330
TP2:4309
TP3:4277
Logic: Equity-driven position openings typically clear buy-side liquidity first and then move to value/liquidity.
Scenario B: Pull down → Buy in the liquidity area
✅ If the price drops first:
Buy around 4330 (liquidity)
Buy confirmation price 4309 (OB)
SL (Guidance): Below 4300
TP: 4380→4450 (decrease)
Logic: 4330 is a major liquidity magnet that often generates sharp rallies.
Scenario C (worst case scenario): Buy deep support 4203–4206
✅ If volatility is high and prices are liquid:
Purchase: 4203 – 4206
Level: 4195
Target price: 4277 → 4330
Logic: If the market performs a hard liquidity reset, this is a deep swing buy zone.
4) Key points to kick off Monday’s headlines
If spreads increase, avoid trading within the first 5-10 minutes.
Enter only when price reaches that level and shows a clear reaction (Rejection/Engulfing/MSS on M15).
Downsizing – Geopolitical openings can swing wildly.
Do you think the trend on Monday will rush towards 4450 first, or will it fall directly back to the liquidity of 4330?
