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Liquidity cycle within a strong ascending channel
On the daily time frame, gold remains in a clear long-term uptrend, trading within a clear ascending channel. However, recent volatility suggests the market is entering a liquidity-driven correction rather than a trend reversal.
Technical structure
On the 1st daily line, the price is still in an upward channel, and the highs and lows continue to move upward.
Highlighting the rejection of the upper channel highlights profit-taking and the absorption of selling liquidity near higher prices.
The current price action indicates a cycle between buying liquidity (distribution) and low value areas (accumulation).
Key liquidity areas to monitor
Liquidity for sale (Al-Mumayaz area):
4480 – 4485
This area represents a strong liquidity cluster near the upper channel and previous expansion highs, where price showed clear rejection.
Buy Liquidity (Value Zone):
4180 – 4185
The middle of the channel is a psychological level and support where buyers may re-enter the market if prices fall.
4000 – 4005
Key long-term liquidity and Fibonacci overlap near the channel’s lower border, acting as key structural support.
expected price action
Short term: Prices may continue to fluctuate, there may be rebalancing between liquidity pools, and volatility may occur.
Medium term: As long as price remains above the lower channel, a correction is considered within the broader uptrend.
If there is an outright refusal to sell liquidity and then a shift to buying liquidity, a healthy reset will continue later.
Potential events and geopolitical context
Geopolitical risks rose sharply after former President Trump announced large-scale U.S. actions against Venezuela, including the arrest of President Maduro.
The incident added new uncertainty to global markets and boosted demand for safe havens.
Historically, rising geopolitical tensions, coupled with a weak U.S. dollar environment, have tended to support gold prices, especially over longer time frames.
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Gold’s long-term bullish narrative remains intact
Current moves are driven by liquidity cycles, not weakness
Once the correction phase ends, geopolitical risks may accelerate to the upside
Patience is still key. Let price move between areas of liquidity before moving to the next trend.
