Yemen conflict pits Saudi and UAE-backed forces into confrontation

Dramatic events in southern Yemen have plunged Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into an unprecedented direct confrontation and threaten to divide the country, whose future hangs in the balance.

Both Gulf powers have intervened in the country’s long-running civil war on behalf of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, but the breakdown of the alliance has led them to back separate rival groups on the ground, one of which is now pushing for a breakaway state in southern Yemen to declare independence.

On Friday, UAE-backed forces declared a “war” had begun, accusing Saudi-backed ground forces of carrying out the attack alongside Saudi air strikes.

Yemen’s civil war erupted in 2014, plunging the already impoverished country into years of deadly violence and one of the world’s worst hunger crises.

When the war began, Iran-backed Houthi rebels took control of much of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015 when the Arab League, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, launched a military operation to restore government rule.

In recent years, a ceasefire agreement has eased the conflict with the Houthis and resulted in the front lines being frozen.

But the Saudi-backed ruling coalition – the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which was established in 2022 to unite various anti-Houthi factions – is already conflicting.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of southern Yemen has been captured by the UAE-backed separatists known as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which has officially become part of the coalition.

On December 2, the STC, which seeks to establish an independent state in the south, launched a large-scale military offensive in the east of the country and quickly seized territory from government forces, escalating internal fighting. The STC’s advances include the oil-rich Hadramaut province, which borders Saudi Arabia.

The strategy committee said the offensive was necessary to “restore stability in the south.” But Rashad Alimi, the committee’s chairman, condemned it as an “insurgency” and said the STC’s separatist activities risked dividing Yemen and plunging the region into chaos.

Tensions further escalated as the Saudi-led coalition launched air strikes. An STC military camp in Hadramaut was hit by an airstrike on Friday, killing seven people, an STC official said.

It followed airstrikes on the southern port of Mukalla on Tuesday, with the coalition accusing the UAE of sending two ships laden with military equipment to separatists over the weekend. No casualties were reported, but images of burned vehicles shared on social media after the attack suggested it was directly targeting Emirati hardware.

The UAE foreign ministry denied the accusations, saying the shipment did not contain weapons and that the vehicles would be used by the UAE’s military in the country.

After Tuesday’s attack, the head of Yemen’s presidential council said it had canceled a joint defense treaty with the UAE and ordered all its forces to leave the country within 24 hours.

The Saudi foreign ministry backed calls for Emirati troops to withdraw, accusing the UAE of pressuring the Saudi Strategic Council to launch an offensive in the east that has reached Saudi Arabia’s border. The ministry warned that Saudi Arabia’s national security was a “red line”.

The UAE denied it was behind the strategic council’s latest military action, but hours later made a surprise move by acknowledging the request and agreeing to withdraw its troops from Yemen.

The UAE’s motivation for backing the Yemen Strategic Council is thought to be to help it secure access to major seaports and challenge Islamist parties in the government.

But Chatham House researcher Farea Al-Moslimi said that even if the UAE completely withdraws its physical presence in Yemen, it “would not change anything” and would not mean concessions to the Strategic Council forces it supports.

“The UAE has not had a significant troop presence in Yemen since 2019. It has relied on special forces and mainly on a network of agents working directly on the ground,” Mr Muslim said.

Families are alarmed by the prospect of wider fighting in newly contested areas such as Hadhramaut.

“If things get worse, some people will consider going to villages or staying with relatives. But most people don’t actually choose to leave the city,” said Mohammed, who is from Mukalla.

“Most people have gone out less and have stocked up on items such as flour and rice. Everyone is paying close attention to the news.”

Years of devastating conflict have devastated Yemen’s economy. Some 40 million people in the country suffer from what aid agencies say is the world’s third-worst hunger crisis, which has repeatedly threatened famine proportions. In 2021, the United Nations estimated that 377,000 people died as a result of the conflict and its impact on hunger and health care, 259,000 of whom were said to be children under the age of five.

While the current conflict is being described as an emerging proxy war between the two Gulf powers, close observers of Yemeni politics believe the recent escalation by the Yemeni Strategic Council is a long time coming.

Yemeni affairs correspondent Anwar al-Ansi told BBC Arabic that the STC’s ambitions have grown further recently by expanding its control over almost all of the country’s southern regions.

“(STC Chairman Aidaros) Zubaidi is the most determined person in Yemen and has always demanded independence for southern Yemen. So, no, I don’t think he will give up,” Mr Al-Muslimi said.

STC spokesman Anwar al-Tamimi confirmed their aspirations in an interview with the BBC.

“Our intention has been clear for many years, which is to establish an independent state, and we are not trying to deceive anyone,” he said.

“The people of the South have the right to choose their own destiny, and unfortunately many in the region are trying to stop us.”

He denied that independence would pose a threat to Saudi Arabia’s national security.

“We will maintain stability and not become a source of terrorism that threatens them,” he said.

It is unclear whether the guarantees will be enough to deter Saudi-backed forces from trying to retake control of southern Yemen.

“The UAE and Saudi Arabia cannot and will not agree on Yemen. Their logic is very different,” Mr Muslim said. “Saudi Arabia has 1,500 kilometers of border with Yemen and the UAE has zero.

“Imagine a direct war between the UK and France – that’s the same thing I think about the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They are rich and powerful countries with lots of weapons and that would be very bad for the whole region.”