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Liquidity-driven correction amid broader bullish narrative
After an explosive rally, gold is entering a technically sensitive phase. While the long-term narrative remains bullish, the short-term price action suggests the market is primarily focused on liquidity and Fibonacci extension levels rather than a clean trend.
Technical overview
On the 1-hour chart, the price has shifted from an ascending channel to a correction structure, showing a distribution after a strong pulse trend.
The recent sell-off broke short-term support, but downside momentum is slowing as prices approach liquidity pools.
Current behavior favors range rotation and liquidity hunting rather than continuing in a straight line.
Priority Scenario – Sell on High
Focus on selling strong liquidity and Fibonacci extensions
Main sales areas: 4505 – 4510
Strong Liquidity and Convergence of the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension
Secondary sales area: 4230 – 4235
Fibonacci Extension 1.618 and previous reaction areas
Expected behavior:
Price recovered in these areas of higher liquidity but failed to regain structure and spiraled downwards as sellers defended higher price levels.
Another scenario – buying with liquidity support
If downside liquidity is fully absorbed, look for selective buy setups
Liquidity buying zone: 4347 – 4350
This area represents short-term value, with prices likely to stabilize and attempt a corrective bounce before making the next directional decision.
Key technical insights
The current move is considered a technical correction rather than a long-term reversal.
Liquidity areas and Fibonacci extensions are major decision points.
The risk of chasing prices between regions is low relative to the reward; implementation should be done on a tier-specific basis.
Macro Background – Why Gold Still Supported
The rise in gold prices in 2025 points to growing market skepticism:
Geopolitical instability intensifies
Structural weakness in the dollar
Ongoing demand as a safe haven
Gold posted its strongest annual gain in 46 years, reflecting the bull market of the late 1970s. While central banks may avoid highlighting these pressures, price movements continue to reflect increased structural uncertainty.
This macro environment supports gold in the medium to long term, although in the short term there will be a correction to rebalance the situation.
summary view
Short term: Trading retracements through liquidity areas and Fibonacci extensions
Mid- to long-term: The bullish narrative remains unchanged
The best advantages come from patience and execution at key levels, not just directional deviations
Make prices liquid – this is where decisions are made.
