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◆ Market background (M30)
After the previous strong decline, gold produced bullish CHoCH and bullish BOS, confirming a short-term recovery trend. The price is now approaching the upper supply area where strong selling forces were seen previously.
After the previous strong decline, gold produced bullish CHoCH and bullish BOS, confirming a short-term recovery trend. The price is now approaching the upper supply area where strong selling forces were seen previously.
◆ Structure and Capital Flow (SMC)
• Bullish /OB holds near bottom, indicating buying flows are still in play.
• The current uptrend has recovery + rebalancing characteristics and is not a breakout of the primary trend.
• The upper supply area is the area where price reaction should be monitored to confirm the next trend.
◆Main levels
• Display area: ~4,390 – 4,401
• Buy Fibonacci (Fibonacci/Retracement): ~4,345 – 4,350 (Fibonacci 0.5)
• Requirements/OB: ~4,305 – 4,315
• Liquidity Cap: ~4,430+
◆ Transaction scenario
➤ Scenario 1 – Buy the rebound (priority when maintaining structure)
• Price rebounds to 4,345 – 4,350
• A price support/candle rejection reaction occurs
• Target: 4,390 → 4,430
• Invalid: M30 closed below 4,315
➤ Scenario 2 – Sell reaction to quote (short term)
• Price reaches 4,390 – 4,401, but does not break out
• M5–M15 exhibits rejection/collapse
• Target: 4,350 → 4,320
• This is counter-trend scalping, not the main trend.
◆ Summary
• Short-term bias: Sideways → Moderately bullish, prioritize buying rebounds.
• Above are the key areas: strong breakout → continued uptrend, rejection → technical correction.
• Avoid intermediate FOMO and wait for price to reach the confluence zone.
