XAUUSD (H2) – Liam’s plans for OANDA (January 2): XAUUSD by LiamTradingFX — TradingView

Price is compressed within the structure, waiting for trendline breakout to choose direction 🎯

quick summary
After breaking out of a strong downtrend, gold rebounded and got squeezed inside a sloping structure (in the form of a triangle/banner). The cleanest way today is to confirm the transaction:

Only sell after a confirmed breakout of the trendline (4348-4350), as shown on the chart.

Sell ​​reaction in high supply/VAL areas (4460-4463 and 4513-4518).

Buying is secondary – only if price holds the major support levels of 4400-4405 and shows a clear reaction on the lower time frames.

Overall Background (CME FedWatch)

Probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January: 85.1%

Chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in January: 14.9%

As of March: Overall probability of a 25 basis point rate cut: 51.2%, 42.8% hold, 5.9% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut

👉 This keeps the market sensitive to USD/yield expectations. Technically, gold could bounce back, but high volatility is likely – so stick with levels + confirmation.

Key levels (from chart)

✅ Sales area 1: 4513 – 4518
✅ Selling value: 4460 – 4463
✅ Reaction/Flip Zone: 4400 – 4405
✅ Breakout trigger point: 4348 – 4350 (sell when breaking through the confirmed trend line)

Trading Scenario (Liam Method: Horizontal Trading)
1) Sales scenario (priority)

A. Sell when trendline breakout is confirmed

Trigger point: complete breakthrough + closing price below 4348-4350 points

Entry: Sell on retest of a broken trendline

TP1:4320-4305

TP2:4260–4240

TP3: If momentum expands, extend deeper (toward 41xx area)

Logic: This is the most obvious “trend confirmation” on the chart. Do not track – get price confirmed first.

for. reaction to presentation

Sales: 4460–4463 (VAL)

Hottest promotion: 4513–4518 (special offer)
Only sold if weakness/rejection appears on the M15-H1.

2) Purchase Scenario (Secondary – Reaction Only)

Buying zone: 4400–4405

Conditions: Hold this area + make lower highs on lower time frames

Target price: 4460→4513 (discount)

Logic: This is a major support/reversal area. If it remains unchanged, the price may rotate to test higher offers before the next decision.

Main points

Squeezes often create false breakouts – don’t trade in the middle of a range.

There are only two clean strategies: a breakout of 4348-4350 for confirmation selling, or a pullback to 4460/4513 for reaction selling.

What is your direction today: sell on a breakout of 4348, or wait for a clearer pullback from 4460-4463 to sell?