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Today is the last trading plan for 2025.
I would like to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to all the fans who have accompanied me this year. The market doesn’t always move the way we would like, but your continued support and honest feedback have been instrumental in developing my analytical style and continuing to work in this business.
I wish you all a new year 2026 filled with discipline, consistency and success in trading.
1. Momentum
Daily time range (D1)
Momentum on the daily frame is currently trending downward. Counting today’s candle, we have approximately three consecutive bearish daily candles. This indicates that D1 momentum is approaching oversold territory and there may be 1-2 more daily bearish candles before momentum enters oversold territory and a price rebound occurs.
H4 time frame
Momentum remains bearish on the 4 hours, but is starting to show signs of compression. We need to wait for the close of the current H4 candle to confirm. The biggest possibility is that the price will continue to fall, pushing the H4 momentum into the oversold zone.
H1 time frame
The 1-hour momentum is expected to reverse lower again, indicating that the short-term bearish trend continues.
2. Elliott wave structure
Daily frame structure (D1)
Looking at the daily chart, price is still moving within the Y wave (purple) of a flat WXY correction structure.
The current bearish move has extended for about three daily candles. Combined with D1 momentum approaching oversold territory, I expect the decline to continue for 1-2 more daily candles before a daily frame momentum bounce occurs.
The target area for the end of the Y wave remains unchanged.
H4 frame structure
On the four-hour frame, we note that the corrective trend is slightly upwards, with prices tending to continue falling. Therefore, the main scenario remains a 5-wave bearish structure.
We will continue to monitor whether H4 momentum will enter the oversold zone or give a clear reversal signal to confirm this wave.
H1 frame structure
On the 1-hour frame, I currently calculate the downward move as a 5-wave structure (1-2-3-4-5).
The momentum recovered in the first half of the year and reversed downwards, the price formed a liquidity area, and the important breakthrough was limited to 4372. As long as the price breaks below the 4372 level, I expect the decline to continue towards 4266, which is the target for the completion of the fifth wave.
Additionally, there is a strong liquidity area between 4317-4348 that acts as support below the price. A close below 4317 would further strengthen the validity of the current bearish scenario.
3. Main trading scenarios
When the decline is complete near 4266, this area is expected to mark the end of the fifth wave (red).
From this area we can look for buying opportunities as it also corresponds to the confluence area of high and low liquidity below.
4. Important considerations for risk management
Although the current momentum of H4 is showing signs of compression and still needs to be confirmed, this is an early warning sign.
If the H4 candle closes higher and confirms a momentum reversal, the current uptrend could be a 3-wave correction, canceling the 1-2-3-4-5 countdown scenario (red).
Then the entire downside structure may be 3 waves or 5 waves on the larger time frame, and I will update the analysis as soon as clear confirmation appears.
5. Trading plan (for reference)
Buying area: 4227 – 4225
Stop loss: 4207
First target (TP1): 4317
Second target (TP2): 4372
Third Target (TP3): 4471
