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◆ Market background (M30)
Gold has experienced a strong bearish phase in the form of an offset, breaking the previous bullish structure. The current rebound is only a technical rebound and has not yet reached the conditions to confirm a trend reversal.
Gold has experienced a strong bearish phase in the form of an offset, breaking the previous bullish structure. The current rebound is only a technical rebound and has not yet reached the conditions to confirm a trend reversal.
◆ Structure and Capital Flow (SMC)
• The formation of lower highs from the previous highs confirms that the short-term structure has turned bearish.
• Price rises to the Fibonacci area 0.5 – 0.618, matching the old supply/distribution area.
• Without significant breakout strength, this area is prone to selling reactions.
◆ Main mission levels
• Sell Zone (Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618): ~4,435 – 4,445
• Current price: ~4,379
• Recent bottom (liquidity): ~4,300
• Invalid sell scenario: M30 closes above 4,445
◆ Transaction scenario
➤ Scenario 1 – Bounce Sales (Priority)
• Wait for price to rise to 4,435 – 4,445
• Small breakout/rejection candle appears → Watch out for selling
• Target: 4,360 → 4,330 → 4,300
• Stop loss: above 4,445
➤ Scenario 2 – Don’t sell if
• If price breaks and stabilizes above 4,445
→ The bearish scenario expires, pending the formation of new structures.
◆ Summary
• Key Tendency: Bearish – Sell on rallies.
• The current rally is just a technical rebound after a strong decline.
• Avoid buying against the trend when there is no clear change in the bullish structure.
