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Trade on rising channel structure and liquidity
Gold continued its upward trend in the second half of the year and operated within a clear price channel. When the price is close to the extension area, an effective strategy is to buy when the value area rebounds and sell short-term at the upper boundary to avoid chasing the rise.
Technical background
The bullish structure remains stable as the price continues to form higher lows within the ascending channel.
After a strong rise, the market enters the accumulation equilibrium stage and is suitable for trading based on trading volume + FVG.
The upper boundary of the channel functions as a short-term profit-taking zone, while the value zone below is where to look for favorable buy points.
Priority Scenario – Preferred Scenario
Buy on rallies in value and liquidity areas
Purchase POC: around 4485
FVG buying zone/support level: around 4368
reason:
The POC 4485 area is where volume is concentrated and price usually reacts to its rebound.
FVG 4368 coincides with support within the channel, an imbalanced area that could easily return to test before continuing the trend.
expect:
Price rebounds to POC/FVG → shows buy reaction → continues uptrend in line with channel.
alternatives – alternatives
Upper limit selling, short-term scalping
Sell and resell: around 4,600
notes:
Selling is only used for short-term speculation when the price hits the upper border of the channel and shows a rejection signal. This is not a trend reversal.
main reason
The trend of H4 is still bullish, but the large channel range makes the risk of price chasing higher.
The size distribution clearly identifies POC and FVG as regions with good interaction potential.
Trading by zone helps to better control risk during price expansion phases.
Vision summary
Prioritize a rebound at 4485 and further buy at 4368 to hold the main trend.
Short-term speculation can only be carried out near 4600 when there is a clear signal.
The strategy for next week remains trend following – wait for price to reach liquidity rather than chasing buys.
