Leaders aim to consolidate power in Africa’s two polls

On Sunday, citizens of Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR) will go to the polls to elect their respective presidents for a seven-year term.

In theory, both games could advance to the runoff. In both elections, however, the incumbents were the favorites, with observers predicting an outright victory in the first round with more than 50% of the vote.

But the similarities end there.

The vast, landlocked Central African Republic, one of Africa’s poorest countries, has been in a state of instability for decades, with a range of armed groups inspired by local discontent, extortion opportunities or political ambitions.

From 2013 to 2016, only the intervention of African, French and UN peacekeepers prevented intercommunal violence from worsening.

The national government in Bangui, a riverside capital on the southern border across the water from the Democratic Republic of Congo, often struggles to assert its authority in remote areas to the north or far east.

Despite these enduring vulnerabilities, multiparty politics has mostly survived, with considerable tolerance for opposition and protest.

There is a sense of national identity, and this year the two most important rebel groups returned to the peace process and began disarmament and demobilization.

The country has a pioneering special court that tries human rights crimes, composed of national and international judges.

Rector Faustin-Archange Touadéra is a mathematician and former vice-president of the university.

He entered politics as Prime Minister under the coup d’état and elected head of state François Bozize.

Later, after a chaotic period of rebel rule and an uncertain transition, he was elected head of state as a post-conflict and consensual civil society figure.

Now, towards the end of his second term, Touadera is seen as an even more political and partisan figure.

He forced through constitutional changes that eliminated term limits, allowing him to be re-elected. This prompted resistance from most, though not all, of the opposition.

However, contrary to widespread expectations, his most prominent rival, Anise-Georges Dologele, was allowed to run.

This contrasts with the situation in Guinea, on Africa’s west coast, where General Mamadi Doumbouya, leader of the September 2021 coup that ousted 83-year-old civilian president Alpha Condé, is now preparing to transform himself into a constitutionally elected ruler.

Although Doumbouya will face eight challengers at the ballot box, he has dominated the campaign, with his image plastered across the streets of Guinea’s capital, Conakry.

Cellou Dalein Diallo, the most prominent opposition figure of the past decade with a large personal following among the large Peul community, which accounts for about 40% of the electorate, has been excluded from the race.

Despite these constraints on voters’ political options, the return of a democratically elected government will bring relief to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc that promotes economic integration, democracy and military cooperation among its members.

The withdrawal of troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger about a year ago dealt a blow to the EU as the military regimes that seized power in a wave of coups between 2020 and 2023 refused to adhere to EU demands for a clear timetable for a promised return to civilian rule.

Doumbouya made a different choice.

While he maintains good relations with the military junta in neighboring Mali, he has been conducting a methodical review of the constitution that set the stage for Sunday’s vote, although it has been delayed longer than ECOWAS had initially hoped.

His approach to international relations also contrasts with that of neighboring regimes, which have forged close security ties with Russia and repudiated their previous close partnership with France.

Doumbouya maintains good relations with Western governments, especially those in Paris. Officials in Conakry praised the French Development Agency as one of their most supportive partners.

Indeed, from the outset, the Doumbouya regime was treated rather mildly by France and the West, as well as by ECOWAS, despite its troubling human rights record.

His overthrow of Conte – who held a dubious constitutional referendum to give himself a chance for a third term and often oversaw brutality by security forces – was celebrated on the streets of Conakry but faced little criticism abroad.

Doumbouya won international goodwill by quickly pushing for long-delayed trials of those accused of the infamous 2009 stadium massacre About 150 opposition supporters were killed and many women raped.

Although under his own rule young protesters were shot dead and civil society activists Billo Bah and Foniké Mengué were detained and never heard from again, the regional and international response was muted.

West Africa has been rocked by coups, the departure of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS, and this month’s failed coup attempt in Benin.

Guinea’s decision to remain in the European Union and restore a democratically elected government – even if it goes against Doumbouya’s earlier pledge that members of its military junta would not take part in the elections – has been quietly welcomed by many regional leaders and European governments as a step towards re-entrying normalcy.

With jihadist groups now disrupting daily life and trade in southern Mali and Burkina Faso, Guinea’s incremental progress toward constitutional stability has been welcomed despite ongoing civil rights issues.

The same goes for Touadera, who is running for a third term in Central African Republic, a country slowly emerging from years of insecurity.

The United Nations peacekeeping force MINUSCA is helping the government gradually restore basic administration and services, even in remote provincial towns.

The Central African Republic remains heavily reliant on Russia for military advice, but the president has spent some time rebuilding good relations with France and maintaining close partnerships with the European Union and the United Nations.

With Sudan on its northeastern border, war-torn and deep vulnerabilities remaining at home, international partners tended to be supportive rather than critical, despite the frustration of opponents who saw Touadera’s third term as illegitimate.